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April 2023

Pre-Mortem: Metaculus' AI Progress Tournament (...Sort Of)
I most recently wrote about my reasoning for wanting to try and forecast AI progress soon, and painted a rough picture of my next steps.
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Damien Laird
Post-Mortem: 2023 Stanford Existential Risks Conference
Introduction
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Damien Laird
Why I haven't tried to forecast AI progress but will soon
Summary
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Damien Laird
Application: Profiles Aggregating Forecasting Performance Metrics
This is an Application post, one of many post categories found on this blog.
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Damien Laird
Research: Forecasting with Large Language Models
How good is it now, and how could it get better?
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Damien Laird

March 2023

Application: Connect Metaculus to the EA Forum to Incentivize Better Research
A hypothetical case study in how forecasting accuracy and citations can be used to reward the most useful research
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Damien Laird
Post-Mortem: ACX Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants
This blog raised some money! + Other people have cool project ideas too.
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Damien Laird
Theory: My Intuitions on Oppportunities
Where I suspect the highest leverage projects will be found
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Damien Laird
Forecast: From the 2022 Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament
My personal forecasts on a wide range of Global Catastrophic Risk topics from the second half of 2022
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Damien Laird
Post-Mortem: 2022 Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament
How this novel tournament worked and my thoughts on participating
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Damien Laird
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