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An Indefinite Hiatus
Unforeseeable changes in my professional life have consumed the time and energy that I was previously dedicating to this blog and related efforts. While…
May 22, 2023
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Damien Laird
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An Indefinite Hiatus
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Forecast: AI Progress, Batch 1 - Academic Papers
You can find my pre-mortem for these forecasts here. This post is the first of what I expect to be three batches of forecasts for the remaining open…
May 7, 2023
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Damien Laird
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Forecast: AI Progress, Batch 1 - Academic Papers
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April 2023
Pre-Mortem: Metaculus' AI Progress Tournament (...Sort Of)
I most recently wrote about my reasoning for wanting to try and forecast AI progress soon, and painted a rough picture of my next steps. Since then I’ve…
Apr 30, 2023
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Damien Laird
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Pre-Mortem: Metaculus' AI Progress Tournament (...Sort Of)
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Post-Mortem: 2023 Stanford Existential Risks Conference
Introduction The Stanford Existential Risks Initiative (SERI) hosts an annual conference focused on, you guessed it, existential risks. I believe this…
Apr 23, 2023
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Damien Laird
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Post-Mortem: 2023 Stanford Existential Risks Conference
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Why I haven't tried to forecast AI progress but will soon
Summary I have dedicated a lot of time and energy to better understanding and forecasting global catastrophic risks, but have largely neglected AI risk…
Apr 17, 2023
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Damien Laird
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Why I haven't tried to forecast AI progress but will soon
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Application: Profiles Aggregating Forecasting Performance Metrics
This is an Application post, one of many post categories found on this blog. To see what to expect from posts in each category, along with categorized…
Apr 9, 2023
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Damien Laird
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Application: Profiles Aggregating Forecasting Performance Metrics
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Research: Forecasting with Large Language Models
How good is it now, and how could it get better?
Apr 2, 2023
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Damien Laird
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Research: Forecasting with Large Language Models
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March 2023
Application: Connect Metaculus to the EA Forum to Incentivize Better Research
A hypothetical case study in how forecasting accuracy and citations can be used to reward the most useful research
Mar 25, 2023
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Damien Laird
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Application: Connect Metaculus to the EA Forum to Incentivize Better Research
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Post-Mortem: ACX Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants
This blog raised some money! + Other people have cool project ideas too.
Mar 19, 2023
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Damien Laird
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Post-Mortem: ACX Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants
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Theory: My Intuitions on Oppportunities
Where I suspect the highest leverage projects will be found
Mar 12, 2023
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Damien Laird
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Theory: My Intuitions on Oppportunities
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Forecast: From the 2022 Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament
My personal forecasts on a wide range of Global Catastrophic Risk topics from the second half of 2022
Mar 1, 2023
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Damien Laird
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Forecast: From the 2022 Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament
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Post-Mortem: 2022 Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament
How this novel tournament worked and my thoughts on participating
Mar 1, 2023
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Damien Laird
5
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Post-Mortem: 2022 Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament
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