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Forecast: AI Progress, Batch 1 - Academic Papers
You can find my pre-mortem for these forecasts here. This post is the first of what I expect to be three batches of forecasts for the remaining open…
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Damien Laird
Pre-Mortem: Metaculus' AI Progress Tournament (...Sort Of)
I most recently wrote about my reasoning for wanting to try and forecast AI progress soon, and painted a rough picture of my next steps. Since then I’ve…
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Damien Laird
Post-Mortem: 2023 Stanford Existential Risks Conference
Introduction The Stanford Existential Risks Initiative (SERI) hosts an annual conference focused on, you guessed it, existential risks. I believe this…
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Damien Laird
Why I haven't tried to forecast AI progress but will soon
Summary I have dedicated a lot of time and energy to better understanding and forecasting global catastrophic risks, but have largely neglected AI risk…
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Damien Laird
Application: Profiles Aggregating Forecasting Performance Metrics
This is an Application post, one of many post categories found on this blog. To see what to expect from posts in each category, along with categorized…
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Damien Laird
Research: Forecasting with Large Language Models
How good is it now, and how could it get better?
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Damien Laird
Application: Connect Metaculus to the EA Forum to Incentivize Better Research
A hypothetical case study in how forecasting accuracy and citations can be used to reward the most useful research
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Damien Laird
Mania Riddle
Publicly exploring the limits of forecasting global catastrophic risks

Mania Riddle

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