You can find my pre-mortem for these forecasts here. This post is the first of what I expect to be three batches of forecasts for the remaining open questions from the “Forecasting AI Progress” tournament by Metaculus. I published these forecasts on Metaculus as I completed them, so the first part of this post will be those forecasts copied here along with a link to the Metaculus question they’re answering. They’re in the order that I wrote them, and they tend to reference each other so hopefully there’s not too much redundancy in this format.
Forecast: AI Progress, Batch 1 - Academic Papers
Forecast: AI Progress, Batch 1 - Academic…
Forecast: AI Progress, Batch 1 - Academic Papers
You can find my pre-mortem for these forecasts here. This post is the first of what I expect to be three batches of forecasts for the remaining open questions from the “Forecasting AI Progress” tournament by Metaculus. I published these forecasts on Metaculus as I completed them, so the first part of this post will be those forecasts copied here along with a link to the Metaculus question they’re answering. They’re in the order that I wrote them, and they tend to reference each other so hopefully there’s not too much redundancy in this format.